quarta-feira, agosto 30

Conflito no Líbano visto pelos mercados

Os media já fizeram questão de nos informar que os Libaneses e árabes em geral apoiam em força o Hezbollah. Mas o que será que se pode concluír ao analisar o comportamento dos mercados da região durante a guerra?


Who teaches you more, pundits or profits? That's the question I asked myself every time I saw a talking head on cable TV during the month that was the Israel/Hezbollah crisis.
When I want to know what the people of a region are thinking, I look at two things: short-term capital flows and long-term migration. The two most important votes that a man can cast against his rulers are when he votes with his feet or when he votes with his nest-egg. Usually, he does it in the reverse chronological order.
When Hezbollah was taking the initiative, Arab companies fell. When Israel hit back, they rose. The harder Israel hit, the faster they rose. You'd expect the Israeli markets to act this way (which they did), but the Arab ones too? You see, Hamas and Hezbollah are not just threats to the Jews; they're threats to the Arabs. In fact, they do more damage to the latter than to the former. They represent the political and social chaos that keeps the money of the first world from flowing into the third world. The natural conflict is not between Arab and Jew, it's between civilization and chaos. By this measure, Israel didn't destabilize the region; it re-stabilized.

malta com binóculos

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